I have to bear witness lately to the fact that most Kenyans now believe they are in a recession. I must first ask the question where the hell they have been the last 2 years. The papers, politicians, property agents, developers, pundits alike all now have started to be honest and finally omit that times are getting financially tighter. An article in the Standard yesterday by Morris Aron, Real Estate companies feel the heat of economic downturn, dated 25^th Aug 09 reiterated the position propertyleo has advocated the last six months, namely the market is flat with little or no transactions. However compared to the rest of the world, bar Australia and other countries based on new money Kenya has done remarkably well, in fact we should be shouting for joy. England, Spain and US to just mention a few have seen 25 – 30% wiped off the value of most homes, 40% in some cases. I have explored the reasons why in other articles but just feel a need to say stay positive in the Kenyan Real Estate sector.

It is true that the sector is slightly, no very over valued and the bubble could burst any time now, but I see no signs of it actually happening. One year ago to the day give or take a few weeks I came to Kenya to avoid the recession in UK. I started propertyleo with the expectation of creating an independent platform for Agents to showcase client investments. Price of property, location, how it is presented and the reputation of the Agents are the determining factors whether the site generate leads or not for them. The fair playing field will in time help regulate prices as the site allows you to view similar properties in the same area of the same type. Our database currently holds 1100 current property post throughout Kenya. The point I am trying to make unsuccessfully is that there are still bargains to be had even in this current market, whether buying off plans, considering renovating an old plot or investing in a new town house or apartment. Most people will tell you that you can never go wrong with property over an elongated period of time. The rule is normally true as long as you have not over committed yourself financially. The excitement of buying your first home or moving to something more comfortable can lead you into temptation resulting in over extending yourself. Keep a clear head and make your mind up based on facts, your own requirement, access to local amenities as you know the current shortages and if you can go green. Kenyans are finally seeing the benefit of solar and adequate water storage underground so when pressure is there the tanks fill quickly.

I will not try to predict the future of the Kenyan Real Estate market, but like me you can start to interpret the signs. I even consider that a slight reduction would be a healthy stimulant for the sector but in a downturn people always lose investment but taken in the context of recent gains most should easily be available to afford it. I am banking on the fact that most Kenyans unlike their brothers and sister in the West have not taken large loans and remortgages out against the recent profits made. If some have, then it will be such a small percentage of the market that at most it will cause a ripple effect, rather than leading to many repossession and foreclosures, the main factor that usually causes a market to crash. It is hard to say what other factors could or would make the market to crash. The only other possibility is that Kenya has its own Northern Rock, i.e. a financial institution that irresponsibly lent to people that could not afford repayments. One such Financial Institution often gets talked about in that manner, but it is not for me to name names as often the talk is generated through jealousy of their growth and success. I will state on the record that it is my strong belief that the Kenyan banks and institutions have kept recession away from Kenya all this time. Yes it is getter worse, yes people have or are starting to lose their jobs but it could have been a lot worse for us. The main worry is that crime will continue to rise as the recession hits harder. For all our sakes let the downturn bottom out quickly and that Kenyan Real Estate helps lead us out of recession.

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